Asymptotic Ruin Probabilities Research Articles

On asymptotic ruin probability for a bidimensional renewal risk model with dependent and subexponential main claims and delayed claims

On asymptotic ruin probability for a bidimensional renewal risk model with dependent and subexponential main claims and delayed claims

Asymptotics for ruin probabilities in a bidimensional discrete-time risk model with dependent and consistently varying tailed net losses

Consider an insurer who operates two lines of businesses and hence receives two types of insurance net losses. In the bidimensional discrete-time risk model with a constant interest rate, the net loss vectors from the two business lines form a sequence of independent and identically distributed real-valued random vectors. We propose a bidimensional extended regularly varying structure in terms of survival copulas to model the dependence between the two components of each net loss vector, which includes not only asymptotic independence but also asymptotic dependence. Under the framework of consistent variation, we obtain several (uniformly) asymptotic formulas for various ruin probabilities. In particular, the investigation of random-time ruin probabilities unifies and extends the results on both finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities. Some numerical studies are also performed to check the accuracy of our obtained asymptotic results.

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a two-dimensional risk model with dependent claims and stochastic return

We consider a continuous-time two-dimensional risk model, in which the claims from the two lines of insurance businesses satisfy an extensive asymptotic independence structure and the stochastic return is driven by a geometric Lévy process. Under a mild technical condition regarding the Laplace exponent of the Lévy process, we obtain explicit asymptotic expansions for both finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities when the claim sizes have regularly varying distributions.

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a renewal risk model with a random number of delayed claims

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>In this paper, we consider a non-standard renewal risk model, in which each main claim may produce a random number of delayed claims. Such a model takes full account of lasting impacts of severe claims and hence may avoid the underestimation of an insurer's operation risk within a relatively long period. We obtain asymptotic expansions for the finite-time ruin probability, given that the claim size distributions belong to the general subexponential class. When the claim size distributions are restricted to the smaller class of extended regular variation, we push our study forward to the infinite-time ruin probability.</p>

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a dependent renewal risk model with general investment returns and CMC simulations

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a dependent renewal risk model with general investment returns and CMC simulations

Uniform asymptotics for ruin probabilities of multidimensional risk models with stochastic returns and regular variation claims

Consider a multidimensional discrete-time risk model in terms of some dependence structure. For the case of multivariate regularly varying claims, we study the asymptotic behavior of the ruin probabilities determined by some ruin sets. The estimates hold uniformly for all time horizons. Then we focus on a ruin set that allows partial capital transfers. As an application, the optimal allocation of the initial reserve is obtained. Some numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

On asymptotic finite-time ruin probabilities of a new bidimensional risk model with constant interest force and dependent claims

In this article, consider a new continuous-time bidimensional renewal risk model with constant force of interest, in which every kind of business is assumed to pay two classes of claims called the first and second ones, respectively. Suppose that the first class of claim vectors form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors following a general dependence structure which share a common renewal counting process, and the second class of claim vectors, independent of the first class of claim vectors, constitute another sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors which arrive according to two different renewal counting process. For such a model, when the claims are assumed to be subexponential or belong to the intersection of long-tailed and dominatedly varying-tailed class, some asymptotic formulas on finite-time ruin probabilities are derived. The obtained results substantially extend some existing ones in the literature.

RUIN PROBABILITIES FOR A MULTIDIMENSIONAL RISK MODEL WITH NON-STATIONARY ARRIVALS AND SUBEXPONENTIAL CLAIMS

Consider a multidimensional risk model, in which an insurer simultaneously confronts m (m ≥ 2) types of claims sharing a common non-stationary and non-renewal arrival process. Assuming that the claims arrival process satisfies a large deviation principle and the claim-size distributions are heavy-tailed, asymptotic estimates for two common types of ruin probabilities for this multidimensional risk model are obtained. As applications, we give two examples of the non-stationary point process: a Hawkes process and a Cox process with shot noise intensity, and asymptotic ruin probabilities are obtained for these two examples.

Second order asymptotics for ruin probabilities of the delayed renewal risk model with heavy-tailed claims

Since the pioneer work by H. Cramér, the asymptotic estimate of ruin probabilities has been extensively investigated by many researchers. Under heavy-tailed claims, Lin (2012, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 51 (2):422–429) established the second order asymptotics for the ruin probabilities of the ordinary renewal risk model. In this paper, we extends the corresponding result in Lin (2012, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 51 (2):422–429) to the case of the delayed renewal risk model.

Asymptotic ruin probabilities of a two-dimensional renewal risk model with dependent inter-arrival times

This article mainly considers the uniform asymptotics for the finite-time ruin probabilities of a two-dimensional renewal risk model with heavy-tailed claims. In this model, the two claim-number processes are arbitrarily dependent and each of them is generated by widely orthant dependent claim inter-arrival times. Two types of ruin are studied and for each type of ruin, an asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability is established. These formulae possess a certain uniformity feature in the time horizon.

Asymptotic ruin probability for a by-claim risk model with pTQAI claims and constant interest force

In this paper, we consider a by-claim risk model with a constant rate of interest force, in which the main claims and the by-claims form a sequence of pTQAI nonnegative random variables and all their distributions belong to the dominatedly-varying heavy-tailed subclass. We obtain the asymptotically upper and lower bound formulas of the ultimate ruin probability for such a by-claim risk model. As its by-products, some interesting properties for pTQAI structure are also investigated. The results extend some existing ones in the literature.

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a bidimensional risk model with heavy-tailed claims and non-stationary arrivals

This article studies a bidimensional risk model, in which an insurer simultaneously confronts two kinds of claims sharing a common non-stationary arrival process. Assuming that the arrival process satisfies a large deviation principle and the claim-size distributions are heavy tailed, an asymptotic formula for the corresponding ruin probability of this bidimensional risk model is obtained.

Uniform asymptotics for ruin probabilities in a two-dimensional nonstandard renewal risk model with stochastic returns

In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional nonstandard renewal risk model with stochastic returns, in which the two lines of claim sizes form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors following a bivariate Sarmanov distribution, and the two claim-number processes satisfy a certain dependence structure. When the two marginal distributions of the claim-size vector belong to the intersection of the dominated-variation class and the class of long-tailed distributions, we obtain uniform asymptotic formulas of finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities.

A revisit to asymptotic ruin probabilities for a bidimensional renewal risk model

Recently, Yang and Li (2014) studied a bidimensional renewal risk model with constant force of interest and dependent subexponential claims. Under the special Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern dependence structure and a technical moment condition on the claim-number process, they derived an asymptotic expansion for the finite-time ruin probability. In this paper, we show that their result can be extended to a much more general dependence structure without any extra condition on the renewal claim-number process. We also give some asymptotic expansions for the corresponding infinite-time ruin probability within the scope of extended regular variation.

Asymptotic ruin probabilities of a dependent renewal risk model based on entrance processes with constant interest rate

ABSTRACTIn this paper, the risk model with constant interest based on an entrance process is investigated. Under the assumptions that the entrance process is a renewal process and the claim sizes satisfy a certain dependency, which belong to the different heavy-tailed distribution classes, the finite-time and infinite-time asymptotic estimates of the risk model with constant interest force are obtained.

A note on the finite-time ruin probability of a renewal risk model with Brownian perturbation

In this note, we consider a renewal risk model with constant force of interest and Brownian perturbation. Assuming that the claim-size distribution function is from the subexponential class, we derive for the finite-time ruin probability a precise asymptotic expansion, which holds uniformly for any finite time horizon. Our result confirms the intuition that the asymptotic ruin probabilities of risk models with heavy-tailed claims are insensitive to the Brownian perturbation.

Asymptotics for ruin probabilities in Lévy-driven risk models with heavy-tailed claims

Consider a bivariate Lévy-driven risk model in which the loss process of an insurance company and the investment return process are two independent Lévy processes. Under the assumptions that the loss process has a Lévy measure of consistent variation and the return process fulfills a certain condition, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the finite-time ruin probability. Further, we derive two asymptotic formulas for the finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities in a single Lévy-driven risk model, in which the loss process is still a Lévy process, whereas the investment return process reduces to a deterministic linear function. In such a special model, we relax the loss process with jumps whose common distribution is long tailed and of dominated variation.

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a bidimensional renewal risk model

This paper studies a bidimensional renewal risk model with constant force of interest and heavy-tailed claims. We extend the existing models through allowing arbitrary dependences between each pair of inter-arrival times of the two kinds of insurance claims. A precise asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability is obtained when the claims have subexponential tails. Further restricting the claim-size distributions within the class of extended regular variation, we derive the corresponding asymptotic formula for the infinite-time ruin probability.

A Revisit to Asymptotic Ruin Probabilities for a Bidimensional Renewal Risk Model

A Revisit to Asymptotic Ruin Probabilities for a Bidimensional Renewal Risk Model

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a multidimensional renewal risk model with multivariate regularly varying claims

This paper studies a continuous-time multidimensional risk model with constant force of interest and dependence structures among random factors involved. The model allows a general dependence among the claim-number processes from different insurance businesses. Moreover, we utilize the framework of multivariate regular variation to describe the dependence and heavy-tailed nature of the claim sizes. Some precise asymptotic expansions are derived for both finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities.